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The simple truth is playing one hand and scooping a pot where your opponents contribute a given amount is worth more to Hero than playing two hands and winning half the same sized pot (where your opponents contribute the same given amount) twice. Period.

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Buzz, I'm stunned.

Here it is in black and white:

Hero with a 25% high draw to scoop nets $80 or loses $24
Hero with a 50% low draw to split nets $28 or loses $24.

So, ON EACH SINGLE HAND, this is what happens:


High:

25% of the time Hero wins $80, = +$20 per hand
75% of the time Hero loses $24 = -$18 per hand

Net: $2 per hand.

Low

50% of the time Hero wins $28 = $14 per hand
50% of the time Hero loses $24 = $12 per hand

Net: $2 per hand.

Each, individual hand is identical in EV. However, if you wish to lower your variance, the low draw is a better option with the same EV. The variance associated with the high hand is more because you win only half as often.

As I said previously this assumes that all the money goes in on the turn, as stated in the OP.

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(At the same time, I agree that two half pots equal one scoop in terms of how hands fare in a non-folding simulation, assuming all pots are the same size).

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The two pots concept is unnecessary. One half pot equals one scoop in terms of a single hand.