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Old 11-29-2005, 09:05 AM
KeithF40 KeithF40 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: 40-80 Red Queens

Calling on the turn appears to be a rather borderline decision which can ultimately be solved by putting your opponent on a hand which seems to be the toughest problem in this hand. You are getting around 9 to 1 and you can give yourself all of the tens as outs for the win. AQ is a very unlikely holding for villian. The only way you are not going to take the entire pot if a ten falls is if villian is also holding a queen which seems extremely unlikely giving him raise on the turn. The only hand that he could have that contains a queen based on his play is QJ, KQ, or QQ. KQ would be a very odd raise on the flop, QQ would be odd raise on turn and also mathematically doesnt seem to probable as does any hand that contains a queen, and QJ seems improbable with the raise on the turn. The odds against you completing your straight are about 11 to 1. With the pot so big on the river I think you would probably get called which would result in implied pot odds of 10 to 1. If you give yourself one queen as an out you are 9 to 1 to make the hand which would make a call even without the extra gained bet on the end correct. Giving yourself both queens make you a 7.5 to 1 dog which makes a call the clear decision. Ultimately your call comes down to whether or not a queen will give you the best hand. I dont think you have much fold equity at this point plus I dont see a scary card that can come on the turn that wouldnt help your hand and that would scare him off his hand enough to make him fold.
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