Re: Lloyd, why do...
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Are you sure hero's equity *decreases* when a player is eliminated?
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in real life, no, of course not. this is another place where chip count gives you bad results. suppose you have 99% of the chips left with 3 people in a 5/3/2 sit n go, so 4 units still up grabs, 2 locked up. chip count estimates you get .99*4+2 ~= 6. when you knock one guy out, you have 3+.99*2 ~=5. the same thing is happening here.
we're giving 9 of the 10 players left $360 (and one goes home). so of the prize pool that's being distributed right now, hero gets 11.1%. but chip count was assuming before he'd get 15% of the remaining prize pool in play, so knocking someone out and getting "just" 11.1% hurts hero's EV, according to the math.
nice analysis, lloyd.
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