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Old 11-15-2005, 12:19 AM
bluefeet bluefeet is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: galapagos islands of course
Posts: 825
Default Re: $22 Bubble Trouble 3

ok, this one is tad closer [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

range problem:

UTG has a green light to push ANY TWO here. but...he didn't. does that tell us anything? well, only that he doesn't know that he should be pushing 43o here. is this minraise indicative of someone that would consider folding to SB's push? but even if it does, it also tells me that he's trying to communicate that he has "enough" to take on the shorties.

So, if he's pushing something only slightly better than random, it is a modest +$EV call for you - had shortie not called.

If we settle on a (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs) kind of range for UTG, shortie should only be calling with TT+,AKo,AQs+.

Are we behind shortie? Almost certainly IMO.

BUT...we have a sidepot. This is where it gets fun.

If we know shortie stands the best chance to win this hand, look what happens:

~ you fold
Seat 1: Olback17 ( $410 )
Seat 5: shapy111 ( $3250 )
Seat 8: Meredict ( $1760 )
Seat 10: losyara007 ( $2330 )

Of course if he loses, we crawl intoTM. And if we call and don't beat UTG? Yeah...broke. But if we call AND beat UTG:

Seat 1: Olback17 ( $820 )
Seat 5: shapy111 ( $2970 )
Seat 8: Meredict ( $1880 )
Seat 10: losyara007 ( $2330 )

Meh...1.5bb's [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Not so much better.

SO!! It boils down to folding, UTG sucking out on shortie....or calling, EITHER OF YOU sucking out on shortie!! There's an off-chance that a) they share an Ace, or b) shortie is calling w/ a PP<J...both making your hand look a little stronger.

[Been typing all of this having not made up my mind yet [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]]

Decided: I'm calling. I just don't like UTG's chances ALONE here vs. shortie. And obviously folding is garbage if/when shortie does win the hand.
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