Thread: Maybe Stupid
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Old 12-17-2005, 11:53 PM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Default Re: Maybe Stupid

It's a delicate situation. BB is probably not going to try putting on a move here with a worse flush, but he might put one more bet in with it. UTG being unknown, you don't know if he'll check/raise with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or worse, meaning that you pretty much have to call down if he does.

On the other hand, BB is probably going to war on the flop with a set, unless he got all FPS and decided to wait for a safe turn. He won't call another bet without the flush or a set, especially with UTG yet to act behind him. Even if he has a weak flush he might not call if you bet it, and probably won't bet the river if you don't. Again, you can't know what UTG will do.

So I guess it comes down to checking behind because UTG is an unknown, and you're afraid of a check/raise that you'd have to call down? I don't really agree with that line, because:

-BB will call a bet on the turn and maybe another on the river with any hand he'd lead the river with.
-UTG being unknown might call your turn bet without a flush at all, and might call down with a low heart.
-BB is no more likely to call a bet on the river if you check through the turn than he would be a bet on the turn--he'll still be trapped between you and UTG, and again, if he's got a good enough hand to call on the river with, he'd probably bet it. But if he has a good enough hand to do that, he'll usually call on the turn and river.

I think this is one of those situations where you just bite the bullet and bet on the turn, hoping that one or both have enough of the board to call it. And taking the chance that you get check/raised.
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