Re: GENIUS IDEA
I thought of this too -- well, let's work it out:
Assumption: BJ is 52 / 48 % in house's favor. You have $100,000 in annual poker profits, on which the tax, for argument's sake, is $39,000.
Hypo A
Simply pay the tax. EV: +$61,000
Hypo B
You bet the entire $100,000 on a single hand (discounts possibility of split / double-down) with 48% chance of winning.
EV if you win: +$200,000 >> again pay 39% tax, so $122,000
EV if you lose: $0.
Overall EV of placing the bet = (122K x .48) + (0 x .52) = $58,560.
So no, it's still not worth it. The illusion that initially makes it SEEM like +EV is that you view the taxes you have to pay as a LOSS at the end of the year. Which is theoretically wrong...you really should view the tax you owe as accumulating on your winnings as soon as you post them.
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