Re: Say you were a bookie....
"You fade all his picks and win 105 and lose 95 for a 52% win rate. You lose $450 for the year."
Actually you profit slightly. You'd win 52.5%, where breakeven vs -110 is 52.4%. Anyway, he'd be betting vs shopped lines.
Also remember that fading his bets will also increase your risk.
If teh gambler hits 47%, you're already winning 53% at +110 for an 11.3% advantage. If you fade him and hit 53%, say at an average of -105, you're making 3.5% on the fade bets, so you should obviously bet significantly less on the fades than the bets you accept from the gambler.
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