Re: A6 HU against moneybag.
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Why are you factoring 5-10% of the time you're ahead and not factoring the times you're facing a hand where your outs aren't good? And what do you mean by "rarely" drawing to less than 6.5 outs. I would say you're drawing to fewer than 6.5 more than 10% of the time.
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10% does qualify as rarely to me.
Let's say 50% of the time we're drawing dead, 40% of the time we're drawing to 6.5 outs, and 10% of the time we are ahead. I'll even give our opponent seven outs against us on average, even though it's going to be less than that almost every time.
So we have (.5*0) + (.4*6.5) + (.1*38) = 6.4 outs on average
If these numbers are correct, folding is a mistake and calling makes us money.
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