[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ is showing enough for you to call this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 8 combos of AQ, but don't think he plays like this very often. First of all a lot of times AQ caps. Another portion of the time AQ raises the flop. Yet another portion of the time AQ checks the turn. Lets say given all this, we can devalue his effective combos of AQ to 3 combos.

There are 6 combos of AT, and I think he plays like this very often. But, some AT might raise the flop, so lets devalue this to 5 combos.

There are 9 combos of JT, but I think most of the time he raises the flop. I'm gonna devalue this to 2, as he might slowplay occasionally.

There are 12 combos of KQ. I think this is pretty likely, although they may check the turn, so I will devalue to 8 combos.

There are 6 combos of AK. But they almost always cap the flop, they might raise the flop, and they usually check the turn, so I will call that 1 combo.


Given all of this, we win 11 BB 3 times, and lose 1 BB 15 times. We also win 5 BB 1 time.

My estimations may be off here or there, but given that the winning BB is far bigger than the losing BB, I think even if the assumptions are slightly different, we still end up netting EV+.

I guess you are right, call this river.