Standard Deviation
I posted this on the internet forum, and am posting it here in hopes that someone could direct me to someplace I can find the math I need to answer my questions, or if someone has some other comments.
Basically what I want to ba able to do is find out how likely a run like this actually is.
The post:
Ok I know what everyone is thinking, another Party is rigged post. That may be true but this is different, please read the whole post before flaming me.
background:
I have been playing online poker for some time now and have long been a winning player. I have been playing mostly 100NLHE on party, and latley on poker stars.
I had a very good win rate for many months, then I noticed a sudden drop in my winrate at party poker.
Try as I might I could not find leaks to explain it, all I kept seeing was that I was no longer making much money with premium hands, I have been struggling with this for some time now, and finally found something worrysome.
I have 33,229 hands in PT since mid may (when I lost all my data). I went through the stats on the hands that have historically made me money and this is what I found:
These are based on hands where a flop was dealt, regardless of wether or not I was still in the hand, and applies to 3 FLOP cards only.
Made a pair on the flop (expected 36.7%)
Flops - Hits - %
AKx
261 - 79 - 30.2% (-6.5%)
AQx
286 - 107 - 37.4% (+0.8%)
Total - 34%, an 11% shortfall, 20% for AK.
I was willing to accept the above, but this I cannot:
Hit set on flop:
Hand - Flops - Hits - %
AA - 104 - 7 - 6.7%
KK - 98 - 9 - 9.2%
QQ - 119 - 12 - 10.1%
JJ - 109 - 7 - 6.4%
TT - 115 - 15 - 13%
99 - 146 - 11 - 7.5%
88 - 170 - 17 - 10%
77 - 139 - 15 - 10.7%
66 - 138 - 13 - 9.4%
55 - 122 - 12 - 9.8%
44 - 143 - 13 - 9.1%
33 - 134 - 20 - 14.9%
22 - 138 - 17 - 12.3%
TOTAL- 1675 - 168 - 10.029%
Expected - 204
That is a 17.6% shortfall.
One more, just for fun:
KK saw flop 93 times, 29 times an A flops (31.1%, expected 24.4%) About 33% more than axpected.
Seems as if the deck is stacked against me. How can this be explained? Please, tell me there isnt realy 52 cards in the deck, or this is actually within the realm of probability.
What realy chaps my ass is that I have still won a fair amount over these 33K hands, so I can still beat the game even with these numbers, and I don't want to quit partypoker.
33 THOUSAND hands. I am mystified. Is 33,229 hands not a rational sample size?
BTW my winrate at pokerstars is what it used to be at Party. so as Winston ChurchHill used to say, "Bugger them all!"
Ok let me have it.
-MyNameIsMud
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