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The wizard of odds (
www.wizardofodds.com) has written many times that dogs are a better value on the moneyline than they are ATS, so it seems like you're on the right track.
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They do? I was under the impression that the moneyline bet is typically shaded towards the dog. There are not as many people that want to risk $300 to win $100 as there are people willing to risk $100 to win $300 (at least I think).