Re: This hand still bugs me. $500 max NL
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SpeakEasy,
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1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.
3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99.
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On this flop:
Chance you win with 33 v AhKh: 33%
Chance you win with 33 v AhKc: 63%
Chance you win with 33 v TcTs: 84%
Given your estimates, your pot equity is .33 x .65 + .63 x .25 + .84 x .10 = .2145 + .1575 + .084 = .456.
If these are your estimates, then this is a very easy call.
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Help me out with the math here, Huskie. Are your calculations that my pot equity is 45%? And this is a call, when I'm behind? Are you comparing the price of the call to the size of the pot? I just want to understand what you're saying.
Also, how do you get to 33% chance of winning if he has the made Ace-high flush. I count 7 outs, or runner-runner pair on the turn-river. This is a critical assumption in your math.
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