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Old 12-01-2005, 09:48 PM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default Re: extracting value?

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In hindsight, making another bet of $75-100 on the turn would probably be best, because as soon as I checked I realized there was still too much money left for him to call it all on the river. So, a queen came, he insta-pushed, and I donated my stack to him.

Looking back on it, he's calling $75 on the flop with around a 10% chance to win, and he'll win more than ten times that much if he hits. So I actually didn't even force him to make a mistake, assuming he wasn't going to call again on the river unimproved. So I managed to take a situation where I was a huge favorite in a $220 pot and turn it into an EV neutral situation. Absolutely terrible.

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Uh, assuming effective stacks are near 400, he can only win 550 by calling this flop bet. So not really good enough odds for him to call, but somewhat close.

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Thanks for pointing out that I'm an idiot. I somehow managed to count his own stack as part of his implied odds. Meh. I still think I donked this up real good. Pot is too big to slowplay on the turn and it's gonna be real tough (probably impossible) to get him to call off $270 or so on the river.
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