Re: Trouble With Set.
This is 200nl full ring, lots of players wouldnt 3bet aces when they should. And if they didnt, most would continue the slowplay then come out of nowhere later in the hand, which is exactly what it looks like.
This guy is 2.7 aggression and 3% pfr. Added to the fact that id bet the farm on him having 1+ aces just because you dont have 4 way reraised pots in full ring without an ace somewhere (so for me a set of 10s would be a huge shock, but in any case its the same as AA from our pov), a guy with 2.7 agg just doesnt make turn calls with top pair nut flush draw in position, he by default raises becuase thats what he loves to do (incorrectly against your hand range perhaps- most players dont think as much as you do!).
Re: flush, I said 50% AK/AQ with at least one spade, (ie 2 spades a quarter of the time). I.e. 50% * 25% = 13% or so nut flush. It didnt affect my actions on the river though so I didnt elaborate.
I take your point re: probabilities adding up to 100%, i was just trying to convey what i would have thought if i was playing the hand, Ida gone 'meh, half the time AK with a spade or two, half the time AA, and a little chance of some joke hand', i didnt want to be pinickity and go '45% chance AA' etc...!
i hope it worked out ok
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