[W. Deranged]

Key factors:

1. You're getting to the river here obviously.
2. About half of villain's range is probably made up of pairs that are overpairs to that board and kill many of your pair outs, and those hands are never folding.
3. Some of the time villain has an unpaired big card hand (AK, AQ).
4. Folding out the button's big card hand is not that valuable because of the presence of the cold-caller. Our Q high has little showdown value even against him and so the value of folding the three-bettor is basically just to clean up some pair outs some of the time. (We only get huge benefits by getting him to fold exactly AQ).


The conclusion of all this is that I don't think there's much merit in a super-aggressive line here aimed at trying to buy outs or fold equity. For such a line to be valid, we need to parlay the fact that button does not have an overpair and the fact that this is the 1 out of 2 times where the donkey won't go to showdown.

Since that's no good, getting aggressive here is just likely to cost bets as we're out of position.

So I check-call the flop and check-call the turn.