Re: Folding the nuts?
He has 4 outs to win the whole pot and 33 cards to split. 4300 in the pot on the turn. Villain bets 9800 into 4300, hero is calling 9800 to win 14100.
4 outs to win -> (+14100) (.08696) = +1226.09
9 outs to lose -> (-9800) (.1957) = -1917.39
33 outs to tie -> (+2150) (.7174) = +1542.39
EV is approximately + 851. I think my math is right, anyone can double check me plz.
Also, this question is still ridiculous because he doesn't always have a flush draw, and so your EV is actually much higher on average, but for the specific situation you are still +EV to call the all in bet on the river. As you can see the EV is significant, its not even a close decision.
Mike
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