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Old 11-14-2005, 03:18 PM
McMelchior McMelchior is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: New York, New York
Posts: 66
Default Re: WPT Foxwoods Main Event Hand

A narrow view of villain's likely range:

AA, KK, AK, QQ. And Harington's 10% chance of a bluff.

Pot equity:

AA - 3 of 23 combos: 7%
KK - 3 of 23 combos: 30%
AK - 9 of 23 combos: 50%
QQ - 6 of 23 combos: 43%
Bluff - 2 of 23 combos: 60%

Gives you 40% equity in the pot (according to my calculations). If he's stupid enough to bluff with a worse Ace (or unlucky enough to hold a worse K) your equity goes up.

If you call t7,300 the pot will hold t21,175. Of which 40% is t8,640, earning you t1,340 or 15% stack increase.

Looks like a call to me.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)
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