Re: Do You Really Have 9 OutsTo A Flush Draw??
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If 20 cards are dealt, then on average 5 of each suit will be dealt. If you are suited then you can assume that on average 3 other cards of your suit were already dealt. So once you flop a flush draw you would only have 6 outs in reality on average.
Is it better to assume we have 6 outs to a flush instead of 9??
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When you assume you have 8 outs, the odds of getting your flush by the River, when two have flopped, is 1.86:1
Ok, let's assume 4 of our suit was dealt out and we have two of them, leaving 6 in the deck. We assume now, that we have "seen" the cards dealt to our opponents.
The Flop comes with 2 of our suit. We have now "seen" 23 cards in the deck, leaving 29.
29*28 = 812 total possible turn/river variations
23*22 = 506 variations that won't give us the flush
812 - 506 = 306 that will
506/306 = 1.65:1 odds. You've increased the chances of you getting your flush.
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