Thread: Turn Play...
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Old 12-29-2005, 05:00 PM
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Default Re: Turn Play...

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but I felt the low possibility of a raise in conjunction with a decent draw that will get paid if I hit merited a flop peel.

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Drawing to longshots can be ok if the circumstances are right.

You either need to be priced in (which is unlikely to occur in a pot-limit format)

OR

You need to have the correct implied odds.

Where some people get hung up is with the whole idea of implied odds. If you are drawing to a long-shot, you don't want to be drawing to something like a simple gutshot straight draw. First of all, unless your opponents are morons, they will see the straight and may freeze up, limiting your potential profit and killing your implied odds. Secondly, your hand could be counterfieted on the river when the last card brings a better straight, flush, full house, etc. Remember, you want your opponent thinking that he has the best hand and go with you to showdown. I've seen many players hit their 3 out gutshots on the turn after calling down a pot-sized bet on the flop, only to start whining horribly when they lose to a 7 high flush on the river.

This is why, when you are looking for implied odds, drawing to straight flushes, overfulls or quads is better. When you hit such hands, you are likely to stack your opponent when they can't get rid of their Ace high flush, overfull or counterfieted underfull.

The only way that drawing to long-shots is not -EV long-term is to ensure that you have the appropriate implied odds every time. Thus, when you hit that 1/20 draw, you can make up for the 19 times that you missed.
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