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Old 10-25-2005, 09:26 AM
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Default Cash Game: AK all-in preflop everytime, you can\'t lose.

Okay, for some math...rufus, someone correct me, I know I'm wrong.

One opponent, given that you have AK, has:

C(3,2) + C(3,2) = 3 + 3 = 6 ways to get AA or KK out of C(50,2) = 1225 possible hands.

So, the probability he has AA or KK is 6/1225 = 0.004898.

With no other information, the probability he has AA or KK is (C(4,2) + C(4,2)) / C(52,2) = 0.009050.

So, the fact that you have AK decreases the chances he has AA or KK from 0.9050% to 0.4898%.

That the probablility that ONE opponent has AA/KK, but what's the probability that one of nine opponents has AA/KK including the times you have AK, and one opponent has AA and another KK?

What I was trying to figure out was, if you went all in preflop everytime you had AK suited or not, would it be profitable, and at what number of BB would you have to have to be profitable?

For instance, if opponents only called preflop allins with AA/KK, this is how I see it:

Assuming you move all in with 25bb, and opponents call only with AA/KK you will win 95% of the time uncontested and pick up (on average) the blinds, plus one limper, so 2.5bb (a complete guess, maybe someone could be more complete). Out of 100 hands, you will win 95 times uncontested for 237.5 bb. You will be called 5% of the time by AA/KK and lose 80.0% of the time for a loss of 100bb. On average, you expect to win 1.375bb per all in.

Correct???
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