Re: 3/6, Nut flush vs 3 bet
Hmm. What's the TAG limping with that he likes so much on the flop? 99? KJs? QTs?
Well, that seems like a range. (Flush draws seem out, since so many broadway cards are taken.)
99 = 3
KJs = 2
QTs = 3
The thing is, though, on the flop TAG may have planned to checkraise just you. So maybe he has KQ for top pair and a gutshot on the flop and trips on the turn (KQ is 8 combos on the turn). And J9s (3 combos) is another hand to consider.
If, on the other hand, the TAG limps KJo UTG, then that adds to our problems.
I'd probably raise the turn, but your line seems okay to me.
On the flop, I would cap, but this would be partly in the hopes of getting a free card. Despite our flush draw, gutshot, and overcard, the action indicates our equity might not be quite what it appears. (To answer your question, though, yes, a set is what we're mostly worried about.) Still, I'm thinking we should have an equity edge, on average.
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