Chances are the chip leader will fold with at least 50% of his hands. Even the loosest players seem to tighten up to at least this on the bubble. Also you aren't guaranteed third here so don't think that busting out here is costing you a sure profit, you need to fight to stay alive. By pushing a hand like 99 AQ and AK you will almost always have the best of it when called by a loose player and if not you'll be stealing blinds and building a stack. Gettingone first place finish is better than two third place finishes, don't forget this.