Re: Analysis of when to call down to a turn raise
I went with the habit that many of us seem to have (rightly or wrongly) of thinking of the 1BB to call the turn raise, and the 1BB to call on the river, as a package deal. Assuming you've got a voice in your head that says "Don't fold for one bet on the river", as many SSHE readers do, I think it's quite realistic to imagine the two bets as necessarily linked.
I am not sure if you are trying to defend you model with this or insult me. If for some reason you believe that knowledgeable players are routinely calling river bets as a 19-1 dog when they are only receiving 8.5-1 then I think you are mistaken. I find it much more plausable that the players are calling the river bet when they are better than a 1 in 9.5 favorite; hence B is going to be at least appx 10.5% in your examples of an overpair and TPTK. Then I think you could say "it's quite realistic to imagine the two bets as necessarily linked"; otherwise...
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