[bills217]

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Little-known fact: in the Tubby Smith era, Kentucky plays worse at home in Rupp Arena than on the road or at neutral sites. This is not an anomaly.

[/ QUOTE ] You are wrong.

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Since the 2002-03 season:

Apparently the impossibly tough Rupp Arena conditions didn't bother Nike Elite in '02. They walked in and beat the Cats 84-75, and it wasn't like we had a crap team. UK went 32-4, 16-0 SEC that year. Of the four non-exhibition games we lost that year, one was at home (Mich. St.), two were at neutral sites (UVA in Hawaii and Marquette in Elite 8), and one was at Louisville, where the fans are split and it might as well be a neutral site. Undefeated on the road outside the state of Kentucky.

2003-04 - Two losses at home (against Louisville and an awful Georgia team), two on the road, one at a neutral site.

2004-05 - Three losses on the road (by one point to Florida, at South Carolina, and at eventual champ UNC), two at neutral sites, and one at home, to the only quality non-conference team we played at home, Kansas, without their best player, Wayne Simien.

Does that seem to indicate homecourt dominance to you?

And who could forget 2000? Ah, the Ten-Loss Tubby days...lost to Penn State (in basketball) at home, 73-68, then promptly went to the Dean Dome the next week and beat UNC by 17. Go figure.

Does any of that seem to indicate that the recent Kentucky teams have played better at home, especially when you consider that the schedule on the road and at neutral sites is MUCH tougher? (The likes of Nike Elite, Penn State, and the Vermont School for the Blind, Deaf, and Dumb usually come at home.)

Not only is it true, but it actually makes some sense when you think about it, which I addressed in my OP.

If nothing else, folks, please take this much from this thread: when Kentucky plays at home, the line is likely inflated somewhat. The opposite may very well be true when they play on the road. Act accordingly, but do so, of course, at your own peril.