Re: Betting system for UK soccer
So, after doing some thinking on this system. What we are doing for each 5-game accumulator is making four "safe" bets and one additional bet that simply is to bet a draw on a random game in division 2.
If betting a draw on a random game in division 2 is -EV we would be better off with just our "safe" bets. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out if the draw bets are likely to be +EV... From the statistics above we can be pretty sure that at least 25% of the games are draws. This means that the odds we get for a draw has to be 3/1 or better on average. (I'm not used to this odds notation since we use decimal numbers in Sweden, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong).
I don't have the division 2 odds in front of me so I can't tell you if it actually is +EV or not.
Anyway, if the division 2 draw bets would be +EV, wouldn't we be better off just betting combinations of division 2 draws and don't bother with the "safe" bets?
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