[jasonHoldEm]

(From pg 45 of GTAOT, I hope I'm getting this right)

Mason gives a formula to calculate a "no-risk" bankroll, basically you need to calculate the point at which the largest possible deficit can occur:

N = [ (3*std dev)/ (2*Winrate)]^2

and then you plug that number into the BR forumula

BR = (winrate)(N) - (3)(std dev)(N)^1/2

(Assuming my math is right and assuming I'm understanding correctly what mason is saying...both of which might be big assumptions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ... ) If we use a winrate of 2bb and a std dev of 20bb (which seem to be reasonable based on my limited expereince with the strategy) you'd get an N of 225, and a "no risk" BR of 450 (so the 20 buy-in rule would be 400 and pretty close to the result we get). Naturally if your winrate or std dev are higher/lower you'd need to adjust, but the 20 buy-in "rule" seems reasonable.

If someone has more concrete numbers for winrate and stddev please feel free to chime in (and feel free to double check my math).

J

EDIT: wait, I confused myself...2bb and 20bb are refering to "big bets" (i.e. the way pokertracker calculates them) so the result is actually 450 big bets (900x the big blind which would be 45 buy-ins)....I think? Yeah...I'm pretty sure. hmmm... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

RE-EDIT: Yeah, that's right (if you plug 4 and 40 you get 900). I'm going to bed before I embarass myself further.