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Old 05-27-2005, 10:28 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: Mathematical Hand Analysis (the EV of pushing 99 from MP)

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I actually created a spreadsheet

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Same here, PM me and I'll email you mine.

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((1-7.92%)^5) = 66.2%)

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I think my method may be slightly more accurate here, but Im not sure. Mine represents al possible 2 hand combos dealt to five players, and shows the % of these 5 player sets that do not contain a hand in the calling range.



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I'm getting a winning % for 99 of 46.35%

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I used 46.3%

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your pot size is 6,550. How did you get that number?

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I just doubled my stack, and took 1/2 of the blinds. I did this to approximate the change in pot size if the caller was one of the blinds, vs the button, etc. There are much more exact ways to do it, probably pretty easy too, I will add that in my next run.

As for the changing pot size for smaller stacks calling, I dont think it is really necesary. If the goal of this analysis is to decide wether to push, EV will always be higher if you are only going to be called by a small stack.

The % of times stealing blinds shouldnt change, but the negative showdown equity will be less. This obviously wont matter when you are a favorite, b/c you want as much money in as possible.
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