[Shillx]

Q,

This is the absolute best case spot for T4 when it isn't ahead, and that is why this post is somewhat of a mirage. There are 41 unseen cards that can come on 4th and 5 will help us. This give us a 12.2% chance to improve, or about 5.7 outs on a traditional scale.

If we connect on the turn, we will lose to a redraw 8/40 times when we make two split and 5/40 times when we make trips. So on average, the villians have 6.8 outs against us on 4th street. This ammounts to 17% of the time.

When you do 12.2%*83%*47 cards = 4.76 outs (using the traditional method of 47 unseen cards). So we would need to be getting about 8.9:1 to call here if this put us all-in. We are getting 7.25:1 to call (if everyone else comes along) so we need to make up 1.65 SB in implied odds to make this call +EV. This is a no brainer call.

Edit...

What if the dude with 22 actually had KT? Let's see how much of a difference this would make.

p (improve) = .0976
p (out redrawn) = .5*3/40 + .5*9/40 = .15

Implied odds needed = 3.81 SB

So even that small change makes a huge difference. Then figure it out for the times that you are dominated or are drawing dead to trips/quads and it gets much tougher.