Re: Family pot, PPs
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This means that our new equity of preflop bets is about 13%. So, when we raise preflop, we are putting in 16.6% of the money, but only retrieving about 13%. That means we have a 3.6% loss on our bet we put in. So, raising preflop has a immediate -EV of .02 BB.
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This calculation is wrong.
You put in an extra 1SB and the pot grows by a total of 6SB. Your expected return therefore grows by 13% of 6SB i.e. 0.78SB, but it cost you 1SB to get that, so you lose 0.22SB on the deal.
Furthermore I think people tend to make fewer or smaller mistakes in the inflated pot because their usual action of pressing the call button is closer to being correct, so I am very wary of claims that you will make up this loss postflop.
Guy.
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You are right about my [censored] math, thanks for pointing it out. As far as the "fewer mistakes in big pots", I disagree. This may be true in most instances, as their small number of outs are suddenly better in the big pot. But, when we hit a set, it is not the usual case, and people will definetly be WAY overcounting their true outs. This means that they will make far more mistakes I think.
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