Re: Probability: Three-flush to Flush
The probability of making your flush with two cards to come is 1 - P(none of your suit come) = 1 - (38/47)*(37/46) = 1-.65 = .35, or about 1.86:1.
The probability of making a runner-runner flush is just the product of the probabilities of one of your suit coming on each of the next two cards = (10/47)*(9/46) = .0416.
P.S. You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding about odds and probability. You wrote that the odds against hitting a flush card on the river are 37:9, which is correct. But the probability you make your hand is 9/(37 + 9), NOT 9/37.
|