[mosdef]

this is all true, however i am not convinced that you should toss all models where you assume serial independence of results. i would prefer the approach whereby you ask a question, answer it with the simplist available model, then decide if your answer would be altered significantly if you changed the model. since the random variables behind poker results are so complicated, it would be futile to try to overcome all the shortcomings in any model. i would take the line of trying to find the simplist model that will give you a good enough understanding of the situation at hand, whatever that may be.