Thread: 15/30 KK
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Old 12-27-2005, 03:01 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 95
Default Re: 15/30 KK

Assuming your stats for this session are over a reasonable sample, button's flop cap suggests he likely has a J or a T or was on straight-draw of some kind. I think you are ahead much more often than behind here. I think the villain bets like every time here, so I think check-raising is a reasonable line. Then you can decide whether to just call a 3-bet or cap based on your observations of how much he overplays hands on later streets. This guy looks like a potential nutjob, in which case an overpair plus straight draw is quite a strong hand. Still, I'd generally need to have seen something in his previous postflop play before I capped this turn.

You can also donk the turn, and again your judgment comes in as to whether to 3-bet a raise here, but you must at least consider a 3-bet here, at least based on the info you have given us. (It sounds like to me that villain will certainly cap the turn if given the chance with a pair plus any kind of straight draw and sometimes with complete air.)

On the river, I think anything beyond bet/call if you don't complete your straight draw is excessive.

As a general rule, I try to make the mistake of putting in too many bets in against someone playing maniacal rather than too few. I find that I make that mistake much less frequently that one would expect just by looking at hand histories.
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