I disagree about the chance of the 45/50 heads when heads are a 2 to 1 favorite; I'd look it up in an old stats text if I weren't so damn lazy, but I imagine it's within a standard deviation. And technical indicators are a load of crap: why would anyone not buy something when it's cheap and then buy it when it gets expensive?


But I'm pretty sure you're right about blowing the small profits in one bad trade.


Who knows, anyone could be a good trader, but the only way she'd find out is if someone gave her a big bankroll, certain liquidity, a sales staff, and nearly frictionless transactions. Only the big guys can provide that stuff, and only for their employees, who have limits on what they can trade on their own accounts. If you can't afford to be wrong, can't dump your position, and have to pay retail, you get chopped up and you have to sweat your positions every damn day. It sounds very exciting, but not the life for me. I'll stick with index funds and low limit poker...