I'm not saying the guy doesn't have real skills. He might be the best. But 40 trials isn't nearly enough. I'm not a statistician, but I don't think we can conclude the guy's found the grail based on so few trials in a market that's been up the last two months. Well, hell, lemme look at it and see what the Wilshire 5000 has done over the last two months: looks to be up about 15% since 3 April, or in about 45 trading days. About two-thirds of the trading days appear to have ended positive.


The "coin" is not fair, see. Flipping heads 36 out of 40 times when heads is 33% more likely to show up anyway is essentially meaningless. If he does it 360 out of 400, it means a little more. 3600 out of 4000 and maybe we're able to measure something.


Good luck with the monkey, but I hear they bite...