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Old 10-23-2002, 04:53 PM
Ed Miller Ed Miller is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Writing \"Small Stakes Hold \'Em\"
Posts: 4,548
Default Re: Help! David, Prob. of SF over SF, all 4 hole cards play

You wouldn't happen to play at Muckleshoot, would you? They have the straight flush over straight flush "super jackpot" that is currently at about $160K. One thing you should be aware of, though, is that a significant number of jackpot-qualifying hands will never get played. To hit the jackpot, you need exactly three sequential, suited board cards with someone having the top of it and someone else having the bottom (except for some very unlikely scenarios like AJs and 87s on a KQT96s board). But think about some of the cases... for example, someone holds AKs and someone holds 98s... AKs will probably raise pre-flop, and if 98s is behind him, he will be hardpressed to call. Similarly with KQs and 87s. Furthermore, a lot of the lower suited connectors will be folded given the action (or position). So assuming that all qualifying hands will be played to conclusion will get you a frequency that is probably at least double the correct frequency.
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