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Old 06-29-2002, 03:07 PM
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Default Re: The other side of the coin



I agree with your points too, but the bondholders...that is another issue. The bonds were issued well before any fraud has been proven. The fraud all seems to be in the last couple of years where they came up with a supposed plan to emerge from trouble and it included hitting certain targets. To reach those targets, the expenses were switched. Yes it is fraud and should be punished, but don't simply overlook that fact that this type of fraud really shouldn't make any difference to a true long-term investor. Fact is the company was in big trouble anyways and would have gone bankrupt before this date. Their free cash flow, the number all serious long-term analysis must be done on, hasn't changed one bit. The expenses were going to come sooner or later. In this case they are set up for later. Its a vast difference from what most of the other companies are charged with, such as making up revenues through trades or structuring real losses so they aren't seen. If you do the math on FCF, unless the capex was hidden from everyone, and word is that it wasn't, then you could easy see that despite claims of earnings the cash situation was getting worst. Critical analysts have been saying this for a long time. EBITDA meant nothing here because everyone has known that its $30 billion in debt that can get you in trouble no matter how nice your EBITDA is. Obviously it was further hindered by the fact that the "DA" part was going to be sky high in future years, but not current ones. I am not in any way saying people shouldn't get punished nor companies shouldn't be scrutinized for this. You put your name on your financials saying they are a fair reflection and when you do what they did they clearly are not. However I am saying for those that invested and want to raise a big stink, you fell for the sales pitch just like in that Schwab commercial "lets dress up this pig, because the financials stink". Problem is that every company has some financial issues that are less than becoming. Either its a future growth issue, some liability, some debts, etc. Most aren't to the degree this company had. Hence the low stock price and the fact most should have known better than to buy it because it was cheap and might have gotten financing. With the tons of customers they have and the fact that their network is already pretty much built out, this is a company that could do just fine if they get out of the bond mess. Bondholders are greedy too, they are going to force the hand of the company in many respects hoping to get money now. Problem is that if they just waited a year or two and allowed the business to settle in, the fire sale wouldn't be necessary and their assets would fetch a lot more money and the cash flow of the company could pay off a lot more of the bonds. Such is the nature of forced bankruptcy.
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