[tewall]

I think the part of your thinking that's incorrect is that you want to be more aggressive. There's only three players, and it's not that easy to catch a hand. You want to be the one forcing the issue. You don't have to be crazy, just be aggressive enough to get more than your share. Remember, they don't want to get knocked out either.

I usually start off trying smaller raises, like 3 x BB or so (I'll experiment to find out what's a small enough amount to get people to fold). Sometimes people will just let you grind them down, and it doesn't even matter what your cards are. If they are willing to play back at you, then you need to revert to push/fold play.

Use the ICM thingy, and play around with it, making different assumptions, to develop your intution as to what good pushes are. If your opponents are tight, any two will be good enough, and it doesn't have to be that tight. Play around and see!