[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
You missed a bunch of bets on the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that’s what I thought at first:
He has overcards here more often than high PP's or hands that hit this flop.
He wasn't a lag nor aggressive postflop that I could tell (as evidenced by his turn check). He didn't seem like the type to bluff raise the flop with overcards.
I'd estimate his 3betting range pflop in this spot, facing a raise from the SB to be (being conservative):
77-AA = 6 x 8 = 48
AT+ = 16 x 4 = 64
KT+ = 16 x 3 = 48
QJs = 4
Even without considering some other Ax/Kx/Jx type hands here he's at least 2x as likely to not have a hand he'd raise the flop with. But he'll autobet the flop with them always if I check.

If he's 'behind' 70% of the time, which implies that he bets the flop, and at least 1 BB goes in on the turn/river I make 1.5 BB.
He has 6 outs, 24% of the time he improves on the turn/river and I get the result here which is 3BB (either 2 on the turn when I chk-raise and he calls down, or the river play this time).
So that's around 2.25 BB using the line I took.

If I lead the flop in this case he calls 1 SB. If I then lead the turn he'll fold UI, 13% of the time he improves on the turn and raises, I 3bet, he calls down, I make 4BB.

So .5 BB + .13 x 4BB = 1BB. or a -1.25BB difference.
He’s getting 4:1 on the turn call, so maybe he calls this 75% of the time and folds the river UI?

.75 x 1.5 + .25 x .5 = 1.625 or about -.63 BB difference.

Add to it the 13% of the time he improves on the river and I get 3BB x .13 = .39, or about:
.75 x (1.5 + .39) + .25 x .5 = 1.64

So how many bets go in when he has a hand?
I lead the flop, he raises, I call or 3bet?
If I 3bet and lead the turn he calls down? = 3BB net.
If I call and chk-raise the turn and he calls down = 3.5 BB

So, the line I took: 70% x 2.25 + 30% x 3 = 2.5 BB
Playing it fast: 70% x 1.64 + 30% x 3.5 = 2.2 BB

Assuming my assumptions are anywhere close to good, it looks better..