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Old 12-29-2005, 08:48 PM
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Default Re: Actual play and results

Well on the turn, he probably thinks since you're betting out very strong, that you aren't also on a flush draw. Yes you could be semi-bluffing, but for pot-odds consideration that's really not something you can factor in. So by his calcs that would give him at least 12 outs (9 diamonds and 3 non-diamond 6s) and possibly 3 more with the 8, although I think he'd have to be a little worried about an overpair. So that gives him either a ~48% or ~60% chance of hitting one of his outs over 2 rounds. He's getting 2-1 on his 900 to call. Not a bad call since his odds are somewhere between 1-1.05 and 3-2 to hit.

There are 3 other factors to consider:

#1 If he doesn't hit the turn, you may very well push him out before the river, (which you tried to do) thus reducing all of his pot odds roughly in half-- whether he plans to call the river or fold. Still I think he pretty much has to call an all-in, with all those outs, even if he misses the turn.

#2 Implied odds. Big if he hits the straight (as we saw) or 8 (assuming 8s are good). But not so big if he hits the flush.

#3 $EV - this is the biggest factor. From a purely eV perspective he made the right play. BUT now we get into a whole nother level with the fact that we're on the bubble and you have him covered. $EV-wise I really don't know.

$EV tutorial

If you really want to try to figure it out, you can plug each case into ICM for him (he hits and doubles up, he hits and adds 900, he calls the turn but folds the river, he calls all the way and loses all his chips). You have the odds he hits his hands above. Try a scenario where he plans to call all the way and one where he's ready to fold the turn if he misses. Also try a scenario where he just gets the 900 off of you, and one where he doubles up. You can even try a combo where he gets all your chips with an 8 or a straight, but only the 900 (or 1200 or so) with a flush. You might also try a scenario where he raises you all-in on the flop. Give him some fold equity. I have a feeling that might be the best move of all for him.

Now see if any of these scenarios is greater $EV than the $EV if he just folded your flop bet. That will tell you if calling made sense for him. I'm very curious to see how this turns out. I can't get ICM et al going here at work to do the math, but I will be glad to work on it when I get home if you need help figuring it all out. PM me as a reminder.

-Matt

(caveat: I'm pretty knew at this, so it's possible I may have no idea what I'm talking about, but I think I've got most of this stuff right.)
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