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Old 01-28-2003, 10:54 AM
cavalier cavalier is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 98
Default Re: Funny Story about a Super Bowl Pool

I do things like this all the time. I haven't done it for football grids simply because you can't control which box you purchase ( due to the fact that the numbers are drawn after you purchase your boxes ). Football grids, unlike basketball grids, have boxes which are much more likely to come out than others. This makes the game a total gamble. I'd be guessing, but I'd expect that if you figured the expectations of each number combination, you'd find that you are probably a "pretty long shot" to win anything at all. There are probably about 20 boxes at most that have positive expectations.

Sure, winning $1000 for your $10 would be nice, but it's unlikely that it'll happen. Most likely, your $10 will go bye-bye!

My personal approach to gambling is the same all the time now...

1) Understand the wager and odds ( either writing software, doing simple math or whatever ).
2) Ignore the winnings. Professional gamblers play to minimize losses, not maximize profits.
3) Avoid any bet that I don't have positive expectation of winning.

There are lots of guys out there that think gambling is all luck. As a poker player, I can only agree with them sometimes. Some bets are luck ( like football grids ), but poker is gambling. Betting on your golf game is not gambling when you are playing to a true handicap vs a guy that talks crap all the time and can't shoot under 100. Sticking it to a guy who boasts "I'm a 170 bowler and bowl at least 2 out of 3 games over 200" isn't gambling.

There are lots of suckers out there... learn how to take money off of them and you don't even have to consider games that you aren't the favorite going in!

Minimize losses, don't maximize profits... and, exploit the ignorance of anyone willing to lay a dollar down.

Good luck!
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