[Knoler]

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FOLD Preflop, terrible terrible play, you want to learn start there.

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How is this bad? If he's 30/20 he's going to be raising a ton of stuff on the button and Ax is way too strong to throw away HU.

If you're going to call someone's play 'terrible' at least put a sentence or two as to WHY you think so. Aren't we supposed to be thinking players?

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I agree! I really don't like when people pick apart a play without some explanation or discussion.

That said, I think this is a fold. Even with him raising 20% of his hands, we're at best a 60/40 favorite. About 30% of the time (that he's raising), we'll be toast to a pocket pair or a higher Ax. We're going to be dominated by him more often than the other way around. He's got position, so he'll be able to punish us when he's got a real hand. And we've got a guy behind us.

I think the gap concept still applies -- even to folks who are probably stealing 30% of the time. I think this is a play from the BB, but not the SB. In the SB, I'd rather have more of a hand.

One other note -- I think this is the kind of hand where you win a small pot or lose a bigger pot. I don't think that you're giving up lots of value by mucking this, and this may avoid putting you in some very difficult post flop situations.

That said, if you're going to play it, you have to 3-bet it, and if this guy has been taking shots at your blinds, it's not bad to push back for meta reasons.

I'm more inclined to bet this turn than c/r it, but I don't have anything really bad to say about it, other than I'm not generally a big fan of the c/r - fold to 3-bet line. (Because I'd often rather invest just as much money and see showdowns) However, once we get there and we've been 3-bet I don't see very many hands that we beat.

We're getting roughly 4:1 effective to call down -- I don't think we win 20% of the time here. Good fold.

I'm interested to hear other opinions. Does anyone worry he's doing this with AT or less a lot, where we've got lots of chopping outs, in addition to the hands where he has us crushed?

-Brian