Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?
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I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.
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I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push.
If UTG limps and then pushes to a raise.... I am seriously concerned. BB push ... less concerned. UTG strong hands are concerned about not getting any callers so they limp with monsters, once raised they push.
I posted some first round all-in data about a week ago. My sample was small but it did show some really low hands going allin in level one.
here they are...
I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party.
Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one.
[ Ac, Ah ]
[ Ks, Qh ]
[ Ad, Ac ]
[ Qs, Jc ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ 3s, 3c ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ Ad, Qh ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ Jc, 8c ]
[ 7d, 7c ]
[ Ks, Ts ]
[ Tc, Ad ]
[ Th, Td ]
[ Qs, Ad ]
[ As, Qs ]
[ 8c, 8h ]
[ Qs, Qd ]
[ Th, Ts ]
[ Kc, Jh ]
[ 7c, 7s ]
[ Ks, Ac ]
[ 9s, 9d ]
[ 6h, 6d ]
[ Ah, Ad ]
[ Qd, Kh ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ As, Ah ]
[ Jc, Jh ]
[ Kh, Ac ]
[ Ad, As ]
[ Ks, 4d ]
[ Qd, Qs ]
[ Td, Ad ]
[ Jh, Js ]
[ Jh, Ks ]
[ 7d, 7h ]
[ Jc, As ]
Looks like a coinflip more often than KK or AA.
I would bet that first hand stats are even crazier than level one in general.
First level deserves some special consideration, they are crazy then.
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tjh
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