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#9
12-29-2005, 07:18 PM
 Sully Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8
Re: 30/60 Bellagio hand from last night

I'm going to respond without looking at the other posts first...

Obviously, the only thing you can do is give him a range of hands that he would limp in EP. I think about 80% of the time, you're going to be correct to guess small-mid pairs and suited connectors.

You are also ahead of: T9, JT, QJ, KQ, AK,
You are behind: 45, 56
You are way behind: 44,55,66
And about even with any flush draw, OESD: 67,34, and suited spades

I won't do the exact math on each winning percentage and likelihoodfor each hand. The reality is that it is a) too complicated and boring and b) unrealiztic to do exactly during a hand. Therefore, I have a general idea of where I stand here.

I know that I am leaving out a lot of things here, but this is an approximation of how I try to think during the actual play of the hand. I LOVE when people can break down the actual numbers for me and I can be educated after the hand, but I'm trying to show how I actually think through it, right or wrong.

And I don't really like it. But if he had a monster, why would he donk it out of position against four other players? Certainly, after your action, he has to assume that a bet would get raised by you and kill some of his action. A much better play for him when holding a monster would be to check-raise.

Therefore, I feel like it is most likely a draw or one pair with a draw. A small % of the time he has you beat already.

So what are the options?

I can't call here, and I think it is by far the worst choice.

I can fold here, and convince myself that I saved 2 - 5 bets. But I really don't want to be the guy who can be donked off Aces with a strange bet on a strange board.

So I raise. I may find out exactly what I need to know if I am reraised, and I have a pretty good idea of what cards I don't want to see on the river if I get a cold-caller or two.

Maybe I'll spray a chip or two here, and I don't think it's wrong to fold those Aces when you know you are no good. But in this case, I'm just not sure I know....sometimes I have to look at his donk bet as a good thing, and climb right up on top of it so I can get a little better view of things.