Thread: probability of dropping 10BB View Single Post
#7
05-01-2005, 08:39 PM
 Buzz Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: L.A. Posts: 598
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

Pete - Seems to me it would depend a lot on the particular table. Where there's a lot of pre-flop raising, and then also a lot of action after the flop, it's easy to drop 10 big bets in one rotation or less of the table. Just play a couple of hands and miss, and there you are, down ten or more big bets. And then it can be a while before you win it back - and you can lose more while you're trying to win it back.

In a saner, more passive game, it's harder to lose ten big bets in a hundred hands. However, even in a conservative game, a spell of bad luck and there you are. Doesn't really seem unusual to me.

Figure a hand with a bet each round but no raising costs 3 big bets to see the showdown. Just seeing the river in such a game costs 2 big bets.

Omaha-8 is a drawing game. You can easily have a fine starting hand, catch a favorable draw on the flop, and then have it fizzle on the turn and river. That can easily happen enough in a 100 hand session to not be counterbalanced by wins.

Maybe three or four hours of play amounts to 100 hands at some slowish tables. It's depressing when you play three or four hours in a row and either don't get enough decent starting hands and/or have them fizzle when you do, but many of us have endured evenings where we didn't catch one scooper for three or four hours. When it happens to someone, chances are they'll be down more than ten big bets.

But aside from an occasional session long run of bad luck, how often you figure to go home minus ten big bets would seem to depend very much on how well you play the game compared to how well your opponents play. In the games in which I play, anybody can easily get ten big bets back (and more) with just one nice scooper.

Buzz