Thread: probability of dropping 10BB View Single Post
#6
05-01-2005, 04:59 PM
 beernutz Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: gulf coast Posts: 908
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

It happens. Yesterday in a particularly awful run including my AA23s getting quartered heads-up by A235ns when the flop was 447 rainbow (probably not that bad of a beat actually) and a string of &gt;10 in a row A2suited hands with unplayable flops. I dropped 60BBs and I'm sure there was a stretch where I lost &gt;10 in 100 hands. Of course, some of the extreme LAGs were going up and down that much every rotation.

At mid-stakes 6-max I'd guess *my* probability of being down 10BBs over 100 hands within any given 1000 hand stretch at close to 100% due to the variance I've experienced in that game.

It is not a stupid question but the answer is going to vary widely with game conditions, table size, opponents, etc. so it is not an easy one to answer.
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(1) Can anyone estimate the probability of dropping 10BB in 100 hands, assuming the player is +3BB/100 on average? Make and state any other assumptions you want.

(2) Is this the stupidist question in the world? I'm new to o/8 and am just trying to get an idea of what to expect if I play a couple of hours a day.

Thanks

Pete

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