Thread: drawing, but not the nuts... View Single Post
#9
04-28-2005, 12:50 PM
 gergery Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay) Posts: 719
Re: drawing, but not the nuts...

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose I limp in from the button with 4 players, low limit, with

and the flop comes

Action is bet, call, call to me...

I think if I take a card here I want an A or T, or a high spade, not something like 2-7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], because I may expect one of the limpers to make a boat with his lotta-low-cards hand. And really, is taking a card here justified since I have no shot at the low, pot odds are 7:1, odds to draw top boat is 4 out of 45 roughly 11:1??

[/ QUOTE ]

I would count it like this:
2 outs to hit an A. If you hit a low is on the board, so count this as ~.8 of an out.

2 outs to hit a T. If you hit, half the time a low will hit on the river, so count this as ~1.5 outs.

Flush. It's more likely than not that one of your opponents has a 4, and if he does, then he's roughly 50% or so likely to get his boat or have it now. So your 9 flush outs are worth 5 if they hit, but over half of them enable lows and the ones that don't still have lows to hit on the river. So I'll be generous can count the flush as ~1.75 outs.

Net, I get about 4 outs, which is ~10.5:1. BUT, that's 4 effective outs to get from here to the river, which means you need 11:1 odds on the sum of money put in on the flop and turn. Which means you need a pot here of 20 small bets or so, depending on how the action goes.

So its an easy fold, but that's the way I'd think it thru.

--Greg