[CarlosChadha]

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Typical situation - I start with pocket or split aces. I get called in spite of pushing hard. Villain catches a pair on sixth. He leads out and I call. I get nothing on the river. He leads again - I try to decide if the pair is just a by product of chasing a flush or straight and often call against my better judgement. Pretty sure this is costing me a lot.

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As everyone has pointed out, it can't be a big mistake to call on the river pretty much ever, so to minimize your swings and protect yourself from your own stupidity, alway call. BUT, if you want to improve your play and become an expert, you have to continue to do what you have started to do and analyze each hand in its own context. If you can remember all the up cards and all the bets you can determine how likely it was that he was on a draw. If you can remember how you opponent plays in general and in similar situations, you can determine how likely he is to bluff. If you can remember your playing history with this opponent you can determine what he thinks you might do on the river.

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Another one - this happened last night and cost me a ton. Three way pot - one newbie and one solid guy. Solid guy has a board full of rags and is pushing hard. Newbie is chasing a flush. I hit an ace high straight on sixth and bet out. Everyone just calls. I lead on 7'th and get raised by newbie and re-raised by solid guy. I don't fold because the pot is huge by then (24BB or so), but it costs me two more big bets. Sure enough, solid guy has a totally hidden boat (he went runner runner), and newbie had the flush. I let the pot odds over rule my gut that said - "you are beat - get out"


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This seems like a lack of courage to follow your gut and an impulsive reaction preventing your brain form figuring things out. This has nothing to do with pot odds...there is certainly not a 1:10 chance given the sequence of events and the player profiles that you win this hand (unless their boards gave them some freak straight possibilities).

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I am likely over-analyzing this whole thing, but I think the numbers will show that I have to go with my reads more often.

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This statement might be true or false...it depends on how accurately you assign probabilities to each possibility in your read. If by "read" just mean "I think he probably has me beat" it would would be a huge mistake to go with your read. When you are calling on the river a huge amount of the time you should NOT have the best hand. In fact most of the time that you are calling you should EXPECT to be beat. If you are expecting to win very often with your calls you are either folding to much or not betting and raising on the river enough.

Regards,
Carlos