Re: I think I finally learning
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I still don't get why everyone is ignoring the turn. Just because a river bet is +EV in and of itself, that doesn't mean that turn + river is good. It's way more interesting when you analyze the whole hand than when you come out and say
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Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here > 13% of the time to be +EV.
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I do agree with you about the turn, colin; it seems like once we bet the turn, we should bet the river but the turn/river as a whole may be -EV.
The problem, IMO, is that if we continue we're obviously going to need to invest 2BB to win UI a good majority of the time here. If we're going to try to push him off the pot, it seems like bet-bet is the only possible way to do it. So does he fold/do we improve beyond him >1 time in 3? Assuming our king/queen outs usually hold up, in other words does he have and fold a better hand >1 time in ~4?
I don't play 3/6 so I don't know how a typical opponent would play; I'd say at lower levels, an average player isn't folding 1 time in 4 here, so without a read at 0.50/1 or 1/2 I'd probably just give up on the turn. Can someone provide a guess as to if this guy will have and fold an UI ace 1 time in 4 on the river?
Well, I just went back to kidcolin's OP and I've realized I basically just rehashed what he was saying. So I'm bringing nothing to the table. Enjoy!
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