[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should all ready Westley's post, it's spot on IMO. For those of you who don't understand, i'm gonna break it down Mike L/ style for you.

Villian bets flop: "I have 2 cards that i raise with preflop"

BK c/r's: "I have a piece of this flop or 10-8"

Villian 3 bets: "I probably have a big ace or better, but JJ-KK is possible so i can check behind and induce a ricer bluff"

BK Caps: "I almost always have 2 pair or better, but sometimes i am playing T8s like a nut because i only made $13 million last month"

Turn:

BK Bets "Ok, i'm not scared of your flop cap. You fold maybe 2% of the time. I am value betting your ass!"

Villian raises: "But i still have you anally raped! HAHAHA!!!"

So, call the turn raise. If the river is a 7, bet call. If the river is an Ace, bet/3 bet, and if the river is a diamond, bet/3 bet. If anyone disagrees with any part of my analysis, i want to know where.

Gabe