TStoneMBD hand
This was a hand from his site that we disagreed about. This was from a while ago but in my unparalleled laziness I haven't got around to posting it until now (notice this is a cut and paste job so I was really lazy).
"10 handed game. SB is "megadonkeyx2"
it's folded to SB, he completes, you raise K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he calls.
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, you bet, he raises, you call.
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
he bets, you raise, he calls.
i think this is a situation where calling is better than raising. on the flop his likely hands are (in no particular order) an 8, a 4, a flush draw, a gutshot straight draw, pure bluff. also, was this freeshow down raise?
i'm not sure you feel comfortable folding to a 3 bet from "megadonkeyx2."
this guy is probably aggressive enough to bluff/bet the river with any missed draw or 8, 4, or flush. so this way 2 bets are likely to go in with his made hands and his draws.
if you raise the turn and he has a strong hand, he will sometimes call the turn, and bet or checkraise the river costing you a minimum of 3 bets.
if you raise the turn and he has a draw, if he draw hits on the river he will often bet or check raise the river costing you a minimum of 3 bets.
i guess what i've said here is technically true most of the time anyway. the key is that the only legitmate hand you gain value out of is a pair of 4's. it's that you don't have enough value against his range of made hands to justify the raise given the points i brought up earlier.
i hope i explained my thoughts clearly. i think King Yao has an example about this in his book "Weighing the Odds in Holdem Poker" about this type of situation, but i can't find it right now.
i was reading Yao's book today and happened to read the section on raising for a free showdown. these are the factors he says to consider when raising for a free showdown (if that's what you were doing):
"1. Your hand has a chance to win a showdown on the River.
2. If you are behind, you have outs.
3. There is a chance that your opponent wil fold.
4. The chance that your opponent will reraise you on the Turn is low."
the 3rd factor is not important he because the SB will only fold hands that have very few outs, in which case we want him to call with those weak hands.
factor 1 is met, but factors 2 and 3 aren't. just some extra food for thought. it's on page 138 if you have the book.
(results removed)"
TStoneMBD's response:
"this raise definitely isnt for free showdown. villain obviously isnt folding a better hand so a free showdown makes no sense. i clearly think i have value in the raise against a megadonkeyx2. youre right that calling the turn and raising the river might be better but i want to fold a spade. against a guy that set on bluffing me he might think im raising for a showdown with Ax and 3bet me on a bluff, which would be great. i also think he could easily give up on a river bet when he has a spade and would call the turn raise. i think raising the turn is right."
so...thoughts?
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